Restricted free agents? Double check.

You might think that’d just about cover it for the Green Bay Packers’ offseason to-do list - outside of the draft, of course (don’t worry, we’ll be ALL over that soon enough at OBOD).

If you think that, I’ve got three words for you: Not. Even. Close.

As we all know, numerous [...]]]> Unrestricted free agents? Check.

Restricted free agents? Double check.

You might think that’d just about cover it for the Green Bay Packers’ offseason to-do list - outside of the draft, of course (don’t worry, we’ll be ALL over that soon enough at OBOD).

If you think that, I’ve got three words for you: Not. Even. Close.

As we all know, numerous players – already under contract – get released every offseason by their respective clubs. Injuries, bloated salaries, decreased performance, disputes with coaches – any number of reasons can be the cause.

The Packers certainly have some players who could be considered worthy of being dumped. Sure, the front office might give the old, “It’s not you, it’s us” line, but we all know it’s the player who is at fault.

After studying the Packers’ roster, I’ve come up with five players who could be in trouble. Again, I’ll include as much salary information as possible. And this time, I’m ranking them in order of least-to-most in danger.

As always, enjoy.

5. Middle linebacker A.J. Hawk, four years – Frankly, Hawk is the perfect person to kick off this list. He hasn’t been an out-and-out bust, but he hasn’t been anywhere near as good as he should have been as the No. 5 overall pick of the 2006 draft. The Packers always seem to think Hawk is just one good game away from turning it all around. Not going to happen. The flaws in his game aren’t likely to change as, at some point, a man just is what he is. He takes poor angles on tackles, tackles too high, has poor pad level and struggles mightily in coverage. He’s capable of playing solid for stretches, but never long enough to make a real impact. Take last season, for example: Yes, he had 89 tackles. But he also only had two interceptions and one sack (he’s terrible as a blitzer, too, by the way). Those playmaking stats should be much higher if you’re recording the amount of tackles Hawk is. He’s due $4.1 million next season and a whopping $10 million in 2011. He hasn’t earned that money. Not even close. Verdict: Ask him to take a hefty pay cut for next season. If he’s unwilling to do so, shake hands, thank him for his service and send him on his way

4. Kicker Mason Crosby, three years – Remember how I said, in regards to Hawk, that at some point a man just is what he is? Well, the same goes for Crosby. Three years into his career, we pretty much know what he is. If the kick is under 30 yards, he’s money (a perfect 32-for-32 for his career). If it’s under 40 yards, he’s not bad (27-for-33 for his career). If it’s anything longer than that, though, pretty much anything goes (26-for-44 for his career, a 59 percent average). This past season was particulary bad for Crosby as he made just 75 percent of his kicks, including a horrendous 6-for-13 showing on kicks of over 40 yards. He struggled with his confidence early on and just never really seemed to get it back. My theory with kickers is that they are similar to closers in baseball. Once the confidence is gone, they never fully recover it. Ryan Longwell and Neil Rackers are two examples of guys who ultimately did get their confidence back after bad stretches, but they are the exceptions. Crosby is due $550,000 next season in the last year of his rookie contract – if he makes it to next season, that is. Verdict: Bring in serious, legitimate competition for the kicker job in training camp and let the best man win

3. Tight end Donald Lee, seven years – This past season was the second disappointing campaign in a row for Lee as he finished with just 37 catches, 260 yards and one touchdown (down from five in 2008). Aaron Rodgers clearly doesn’t favor him as much as Judas did, Jermichael Finley has supplanted him as the hands-down No. 1 tight end and Spencer Havner is developing into a nice little red zone threat. Those factors have led to a major decrease in confidence and an increase in drops. He has two years left on his contract. He’s scheduled to earn $2 million next season and $2.2 in 2011. That’s an awful lot to pay for a backup tight end. Verdict: Shake hands, thank him for his service and send him on his way

2. Outside linebacker Brady Poppinga, five years – Despite three very average seasons – and the fact that even the youngest Packers fan knows he can’t cover a corpse – Ted Thompson saw fit to give Poppinga a five-year, $16.84 million extension in the summer of 2008. How did Poppinga repay him? Well, in 2008 he recorded 69 tackles with exactly zero playmaking stats. Poppinga began this past season as a starting OLB, but was quickly replaced by some kid named Matthews. Whether he was a starter or a backup, he made almost no impact, finishing with a paltry 23 tackles and one sack. He’s apparently a good lockerroom presence, yes, but look at his salary numbers for the next three seasons: $1.95 million (2010), $2.05 million (2011) and $2.3 million (2012). Oh yeah, he’s also due a $300,000 roster bonus in each of those three seasons. In other words, a cheaper “good lockerroom presence” can likely be found. Verdict: Shake hands, thank him for his service and send him on his way

1. Cornerback/safety/bain of EVERYONE’S existence Jarrett Bush, four years – How on Earth could we end this list with anyone else? I could list all the times Bush was torched this season and all the stupid mistakes he made. But I’ll tell you a little story instead: I got a late start on my way to Adam’s house to watch the Pittsburgh game. I heard Bush get burned by Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace for a long touchdown on the Steelers’ first offensive play on the radio. Wayne Larrivee, Green Bay’s excellent play-by-play man, commented after the score that Wallace, a rookie, isn’t the most polished route-runner. Larry McCarren, the team’s excellent color man, said something to the effect of, “Well, he doesn’t really have to be. Just find No. 24 (Bush) and go make a play.” Larrivee let out an understanding groan and pretty much just said, “Yeah.” When the team’s broadcasters – men who are PAID by the Packers – talk openly about how bad you are, Jarrett, YOU ARE BAD. The $1.1 million salary next season and $1.4 million salary in 2011 could be spent on something – ANYthing – more useful. Oh, and Jarrett, if you need someone to move your stuff, Adam, Gene and I are more than willing to come to Green Bay and lend a hand. It would be our honor. Verdict: Shake hands, thank him for his service and send him on his way

That’s all for our look at the players who could be released. Tomorrow we’ll close out our post-season, pre-draft to-do list with a look at some possible free agents available in Green Bay’s areas of need. Make sure to check us out.

-Chris Lempesis

Clay Matthews, the Packers’ revelatory rookie linebacker who’s posted 10 sacks, recovered three fumbles, forced another and made 50 tackles this season, finished third in the voting for the NFL’s defensive rookie [...]]]> Get ready for a long line of postseason awards where Packers players don’t get the credit they should. The first such snub came tonight.

Clay Matthews, the Packers’ revelatory rookie linebacker who’s posted 10 sacks, recovered three fumbles, forced another and made 50 tackles this season, finished third in the voting for the NFL’s defensive rookie of the year. Houston linebacker Brian Cushing, Matthews’ college teammate at USC, won in a landslide, and Buffalo’s Jairus Byrd was second.

The Cushing pick is legitimate–he posted 134 tackles, registered five sacks and picked off four passes, all-around numbers Matthews doesn’t have. The thing that bugs me  a little about the result, though, is how few votes Matthews got. It’s a strong defensive rookie of the year field, but with 10 sacks and the transformational effect he’s had on the Packers’ defense, don’t you think he deserves more than three votes?

This won’t be the last time you see a Packers player come up short of an award in the next two weeks, I don’t think. I’ve got a hunch Charles Woodson won’t win defensive player of the year (possibly losing to New Orleans’ Darren Sharper, the Jets’ Darrelle Revis or — in the ultimate injustice — the Vikings’ Jared Allen). And Aaron Rodgers isn’t likely to factor much into the MVP vote. Not with media darlings like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Judas in the running.

That isn’t to say those three quarterbacks aren’t deserving (though we at OBOD have serious reservations about the MVP candidacy of a quarterback who signed with a team and helped them improve by two games). Nor is it to say Revis wouldn’t be a good choice for defensive POY. But in a year where the Packers had a handful of standout individual performances, yet only got three Pro Bowlers, it seems like they’re flying too far under the radar. If Woodson doesn’t win, that would be the biggest injustice tossed the Packers’ way.

–Gene Bosling

Hey everybody–Gene here, back [...]]]> UPDATE: I’ve been graciously informed by reader Holly that “who dey” refers to the Bengals, while “who dat” is the Saints. Whoops. Thanks for the catch, Holly. Can’t keep my Southern team cheers straight. And if you don’t think Cincinnati is in the South, spend some time there. Right over the border from Kentucky. Anyway…

Hey everybody–Gene here, back from a couple weeks of vacation. Nothing too out of the ordinary went down, despite what you might read here. You shouldn’t believe all the legendary Gene Bosling stories you here. You should, however, believe some of them.

Anyway, just wanted to post my quick thoughts on the Saints/Pats game tonight. I only watched part of it, so I’ll keep it brief.

First, it was perversely flattering to watch the Saints construct their secondary out of the 2003 Packers (Mike McKenzie and Darren Sharper so far) and shut down the Patriots and Randy Moss. Makes you wonder why those guys could never do it, at least to that degree, with the Packers. Maybe, just maybe, it’s because Gregg Williams is a notch or two above Ed Donatell?

But that’s not the point of this post. It’s this: Perhaps some of you see the 10-1 Vikings and think Judas is going to get his way, lyin’ and grinnin’ and gunslingin’ and riverboat gamblin’ and actin’ like a little kid out there and doing all sorts of other things with the ‘g’ dropped from them because it’s part of his folksy charm, all the way to the Super Bowl. After seeing the Saints dismantle the Pats, I’ve come to this conclusion: It ain’t happenin’.

First, that offense. We all saw what Brees did to the Packers last season and how it changed everything the Packers would have done in response. And it’s well-documented, despite what the Judas acolytes were saying after the game, that the Vikings have trouble defending the pass. With those weapons, in the Superdome, can you imagine what Brees would do to that secondary? Now, some of it depends on how much time he can get. But he hit them for 330 in a Monday night game last year, and his weapons are even more diverse this year, with or without Reggie Bush. The Saints have given up just 13 sacks, and they’ll probably wind up with home-field advantage, which helps the pass protection.

The other reason this Saints team is so good, of course, is the defense. They led the league in offense last year, but went 8-8 because they couldn’t stop anybody. So they got Williams, who has rejuvenated Sharper’s career and made him a Pro Bowl safety again by letting him do what he does best — roam the secondary and pounce when he sees fit. Malcolm Jenkins is playing well, and the Saints have a solid 26 sacks. They’ve also notched 36 takeaways and scored seven defensive touchdowns. That’s a huge bonus with this offense.

And here’s the other thing, the reason I still don’t see this twisted fairytale working out for Judas. He’ll likely have to go to New Orleans and trade TDs with Brees. The Vikings aren’t built to do that, because it makes Adrian Peterson and their pass rush less effective, and we know what happens when Judas  is forced to play that game. The Vikings aren’t built to come from behind, and Judas certainly isn’t wired to keep up with that kind of offense in the playoffs (St. Louis in 2001, anyone?). Maybe he truly is different. Maybe Brad Childress will somehow fail to make his usual allotment of egregious coaching boners lead the Vikings to the Super Bowl. I just can’t see it. I still believe Judas is sitting on at least one stinker of a game, and he’s plenty capable of cooking one up in January.

It’s well-documented among us at OBOD that we want to play Judas one more time — why not? We’d have nothing to lose, all the pressure would be on them and Aaron Rodgers is finally starting to establish a sense of timing with a short passing game. But even if the Packers don’t get another shot at him, I wouldn’t worry too much after seeing that tonight.

If it comes to it, the Saints should have enough to take him down.

–Gene Bosling

You know how when Judas threw that touchdown pass last week, everybody* was talking about how it was Greg Lewis that made the play possible the Vikings brought him in for EXACTLY THIS REASON? To give [...]]]> OK, one more bit of Favre-debunking this morning before we get on to things having more to do with the game.

You know how when Judas threw that touchdown pass last week, everybody* was talking about how it was Greg Lewis that made the play possible the Vikings brought him in for EXACTLY THIS REASON? To give them some of that Favre Magic he’s bestowed on us so many times over the years? How Jared Allen was sitting on the sideline whispering, “Be Brett, be Brett, be Brett,” not knowing that “being Brett,” in those situations, usually means throwing an interception?

*everybody=ESPN

Then they throw out the stat about all of Judas’ 4th-quarter comebacks, and you’re thinking, “OK, I remember the one against Cincinnati. I remember the one in ‘93 against Detroit in the playoffs. I remember the three against the Raiders, Vikings and Bucs in ‘99. I remember the Jennings touchdowns against San Diego and Denver in ‘07. But…uh…that’s about it.”

Well, somebody else–make that somebody at ESPN, even!–thought this was fishy. So he did some research, which I’m only too happy to pass on to you in this Week of Supreme Favre Hype.

Here’s the link. Read, and be enlightened.

–Gene Bosling

Quick Refresher:

Even though the movie “Rounders” is about poker, the game the Vikings and Judas played all offseason was essentially a game of high stakes poker.  (I have been waiting  on a decision from the man who make waffle makers blush [...]]]> “You can’t lose what you don’t put in the middle…but you can’t win much either.”
-Mike McDermott, “Rounders”

Quick Refresher:

Even though the movie “Rounders” is about poker, the game the Vikings and Judas played all offseason was essentially a game of high stakes poker.  (I have been waiting  on a decision from the man who make waffle makers blush to dish out the Vikings’ offseason review, so thank you for your paitence.)

That has been the story of the Vikings offseason, like it or not.  A team that is coming off their first division title since 2000 seemed to have most of the pieces in place to make another playoff run, maybe even a dark horse for a Super Bowl bid.  The only hole on the roster was and still is at at the most important position in the game.  They went all-in on the ultimate gamble with Judas and lost.  

They may be fine without him, but the coaching staff and front office obviously felt otherwise.  When you have a chance to go for it in the NFL, you do it.  So, they pushed their chips in the middle and now hope the repercussions do not derail their division title defense.
 

Where they were heading into the offseason:

Coming off a 10-6 season and their first division title in eight years, the Vikings sat in a nice position to build on last year’s success.  One of the league’s top defenses, ranked sixth overall and first against the run, returned almost their entire starting lineup, including  starting middle linebacker E.J. Henderson, who missed most of last season to injury. 

Couple that withthe league’s fifth-best rushing attack in 2008 and perhaps the NFL’s most dangerous player Adrian Peterson, it seemed like the Vikings were just a solid passing game away from being a serious contender in the NFC.

There was also the court decision on Kevin and Pat Williams’ suspension for testing positive to banned substances, which was delayed and now looks like they may not get suspended at all.

What happened in free agency:

As far as signings, there was nothing of any real significance.  They seriously flirted with T.J. Houshmanzadeh, who turned down the purple to sign withSeattle.  With Housh out of the picture, the biggest offseason acquisition in Minnesota was the trade for Sage Rosenfels.  In desperate need for some competition for incumbent Tavaris Jackson (before all of the Judas courting), the Vikings ship a 4th round pick to Houston for the 31-year-old quarterback.  Rosenfelsthen signed a two-year, $9 million deal after going 2-3 in five starts last season, throwing for 1,431 yards with six touchdowns and 10 interceptions.  Not earth-shattering stats.

The biggest name to be signed took place just last week when Antoine Winfield ended his offseasonholdout, inked a new five-year deal worth $36 million and $16.1 million guaranteed.  Coming off his first Pro Bowl appearance of his career last season Winfield,32, signed probably his last contract of his career.  Given his age, physical style of play and demanding position of cornerback, some have to question giving out a lengthy contract with a good chunk of guaranteed money.

 Perhaps the biggest storyline of the Vikings’ free agency was their departures.  Starting safety/relative of Judas/ former Packer Darren Sharper ended his stay in Minnesota after signing a deal with New Orleans.  Not a huge loss for Minnesota as it looked like Sharper lost a step last season.

The bigger loss though is on the offensive line and departure of long-time center Matt Birk to Baltimore.  Birk was the longest tenured Viking and at 32, still one of the better centers in the league.  The team had plenty of cap room to re-sign him, especially for the deal Baltimore gave or maybe they were saving the room for Judas and others?  Either way, the loss of Birk hurts in many areas, on-field and in the locker room.  Withuncertainty at quarterback, Birk could have been a stabilizing force.  Now the Vikings must turned to first-year starter John Sullivan, a fifth round pick in 2008.

What happened in the draft:

After missing out on the Houshmanzadeh sweepstakes, the Vikings focused their wide receiver needs on the draft.  Picking #20 overall, they took multi-faceted and talented Percy Harvin from Florida.  On paper, it is a great pick because they kid has tremendous talent and upside.  However, red flags caused him to drop in the draft.  Harvin tested positive for marijuana at the scouting combine, among other off-field concerns.  Seriously, how can you test positive at the combine.  You know they are testing everyone and it is the biggest job interview of your life!  I will never understand it.

I digress.  Harvin is a very unique talent that can bring different dimensions to the Vikings.  For starters he a dangerous return man.  He can also catch passes out the backfield and get open downfield.  There has been talk of Brad Childress installing a version of the Wildcat for Harvin.  It can be scary to think what he can do with Peterson in the backfield.

However, can he stay on the field and out of trouble?  Is he big enough?  Can the Vikings even get him the ball enough?

Those are all legitimate questions and concerns.  At best, he is Devin Hester with better offensive ability.  At worst, he can’t stay out of trouble and his size hinders him and is looking of work in three years.

Withtheir second-round choice, they drafted mammoth offensive tackle Phil Loadholt from Oklahoma.  A savvy choice by the team, especially after watching right tackle Ryan Cook struggle all through last season.  At 6-foot-8 and 343 lbs, Loadholt is expected to compete for a starting job right away with Cook.  Size doesn’t always matter, but Loadholt looks down to about anyone next to him.  I’m sure Peterson was happy on draft day.

Where they are now:

 Ironically, they are basically where they were the day after they lost to the Eagles in the playoffs.  Yes, they lost Birk and Sharper to free agency, but they also gain back Henderson on already stout defense. 

Does the acquisition for Rosenfels make this team any better than they were last year?  Jackson did get the team to the playoffs and then flopped.  So, maybe bringing in Rosenfels to compete pushes Jackson or provide a decent fall-back plan.

What it all comes down to is the courting of Judas.  For weeks, even months it seemed like a foregone conclusion that he was going to suit up for Minnesota.  The coaches believed it, most of the players did.  Even earlier this week when it started to leak that he was going to stay retired, guys like Peterson, Jared Allen and Steve Hutchinson were trying to convince him to return.

Now what do those guys and other players, who said it publicly or not do that Favre isn’t there.  Is there going to be a rift or second-guessing with Rosenfels and Jackson?  Teammates and coaches can say that they are behind those two until their faces turn blue, but how much is that true or just saving face?

Jackson and Rosenfels have both said they are ready to compete and have put this Favre saga behind them.  They say there is no ill will with their teammates and coaches, but how pissed off do you think they are? 

Imagine at your job, you are competing for a job promotion with an equally talented and experienced co-worker for a few months.  Things are going well and then your boss says we want to bring in another guy from a different company to take the position because we don’t think either of you can improve this company more than it already is, but he can.  He has a heck of resume and knows people inside the company, despite on the verge of retirement and less commitment we still would like to have him over you two who have a brighter future.  Almost all of your co-workers, especially the heavy-hitters and the ones who have been there the longest all agree.  He then says thanks for all your hard work and competition between you two, but you now are back to your old, lesser roles.

Then right before he is about to start, he decides to retire after all and your boss comes back and tries to sell that he still have faith in both of you to do a great job and improve this company. 

Wouldn’t your confidence be shot a little bit?  Wouldn’t you be pretty upset for: a) your boss and co-workers not having faithin you; b) having your dreams and hopes built up, then it taken only for it to be given it back when the other option failed; and c) everyone trying to pretend it’s no big deal, we had faith in you the whole time and it will be ok.

I know these guys are all pros and this is the real world, but if I’m Jackson or Rosenfels, I would be ‘WTF?  Before they didn’t think I was good enough, but now they do because Judas isn’t coming and they have no other option?’

And what about all the players who wanted Judas there?  What is going through their minds?  Is it going to be the same ol’ song and dance like the last few years are quarterback?

On the flip side, all of this could motivate Jackson and Rosenfels and the best man will win the job in training camp.  That is what the Vikings pray will happen.  We have seen it thousands of times, the whole ‘no one believed in us’ motivational tool.  Maybe it will happen here.

All of this has to be taken into consideration.  On paper, this team is built to win and built to win now.  Not a lot of personnelchanges were made and sometimes that is the best formula.  The coaching staff returns with the same game plan.  Their defense is one of the best and so is their running game.  Adding Harvin and Loadholt should help the offense and the sky is the limit for Peterson right now.

Now, the biggest question in maybe the entire NFL looms, can Brad Childress circle the troops after the affair with Judas? 

We won’t know that answer for some time, but the Vikings went all-in to win now.  Sometimes in the NFL that’s what you have to do.

Offseason Grade: C

What does this all mean?  Well, for starters may be ESPN can cover something [...]]]> By now everyone in the northern half of Siberia knows that Judas has decided to stay retired.  (I am really curious what the guys at JudasFavre think of the decision.  Like it or a little sad that the Judas saga MAY be over?)

What does this all mean?  Well, for starters may be ESPN can cover something else that may be more important in the world of sports.  The passing of longtime Eagles coordinator Jim Johnson, MLB trade deadline is near, Romo is kicking Jessica out of the house, and maybe most importantly the non-coverage of the charges surrounding Ben Roethlisberger.  Maybe I am off-base a bit, but isn’t this similar to what Kobe Bryant was charged with?  It almost destroyed Kobe’s career, while ESPN is basically ignoring Roethlisberger.  Now, I am not one to be over-concerned about the media coverage surrounding someone’s personal life, but I have a feeling this has to do with someone’s appearance on Shaq’s new show on ABC (which along with ESPN is owned by Disney).  Anyways, I’ll let Gene to handle any further Steeler-related content.

As for on the field, Judas not riding in on his white horse does weaken the defending NFC North Champions.  Already having a rock solid defense and one of the league’s best rushing attacks, it seemed like the Vikings were just about a competent quarterback away from taking the next step.  They went out and acquired Sage Rosenfels prior to the draft to compete with Tavaris Jackson. Then basically told him that he wasn’t good enough and decided to go after Judas.  Well, apparently that wasn’t what Rosenfels expected when he joined Minnesota. 

Now you can go on how coaches and players can say “we are behind both Sage and Tavaris 100%” and for some it may be legitimate.  But, if they are all behind their two current quarterbacks, why would the coaches even inquire about a 39-year-old quarterback coming off surgery and who has faded down the stretch over the past few years?  And why would star players such as Jared Allen, Adrian Peterson and Steve Hutchinson go out of their way to personally contact Judas to come and play in purple?  Doesn’t seem to all add up and may draw concern in terms of locker room chemistry.

What would have Judas brought to the table?  In my mind, not a whole lot.  His greatest asset would be garnering respect from opposing defenses, which would only help Peterson and the running game.  Other than that?  I can’t think of much.  He’s a proven winner, a hall-of-famer, but has really struggled late in the year the last few seasons.  He also has a penchant of doing way too much and getting his team in trouble, something that has been magnified as his career has been nearing the end.

Many Vikings fans have told me, “Well, Favre just needs to hand-off the ball and make a couple plays a game and we’re going to win, simple as that.”  I have always agreed that is not a bad game plan with how that offense is built and having a pretty good defense, but it’s a better plan for Rosenfels, NOT Judas.  Can you ever imagine Judas handing the ball off when the game was in question, instead of trying to win it on his own?  Judas as a conservative quarterback?  Never was going to happen and I honestly believe the Vikings may be better off without Judas .

That is neither here or there, as Judas is staying in Mississippi.  This thing may all blow up in the Vikings’ face and the damage may already be done according Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.  Let’s just be glad that all the cameras are in Minnesota this summer, not Green Bay.

Does anyone believe that this is over?  Is Judas finally going to fade into the delta sunset?  I won’t believe he is over until 2014, when he is elected into the Hall of Fame.  Even then, he still may want to suit up.

As I write this, Ed Werder reports that Favre really liked his time at Oak Grove High School and would even consider helping out coaching this fall, but unsure  because of the time commitment.

Shocking.

-Adam Somers