Collins situation set up to get ugly

When we check the numbers for our site, it lets us know what search engine terms people are entering in order to find us.

While some are just flat-out weird – one person actually found us by entering “I hate Chris Lempesis” and I swear to God that’s true (yeah, I remember her) - most are Green Bay Packers-related. One of the more commonly used searches involves the words “Nick Collins”, “Packers” and “contract extension” – in some variation or another.

That makes sense as Collins’ contract situation has become one of the major offseason storylines for the Packers. It’s been a hot topic of discussion amongst fans and media members, really, since about midway through Collins’ breakout 2008 season. And Collins himself surely wants a new deal as he feels he has definitely outplayed his rookie contract.

The only person who seemingly doesn’t have any interest in the issue? Well, that would be Packers’ general manager Ted Thompson.

And no one can figure out why.

Thompson made no effort to contact Collins’ people after 2008. At first, it didn’t make much sense why he wouldn’t. Then Green Bay hired Dom Capers and switched to a 3-4 scheme. At that point, it became a little clearer as to why the team didn’t push for a new deal. After all, it wouldn’t make much sense to pay him big dollars and then find out he was ill-suited for the new defense. No one wants to be stuck with a lemon.

After a slow start to the 2009 season (just 21 tackles, one interception and three passes defended through the first seven games), it looked like Thompson had made the right call. Then, though, Collins began to really grasp the new defense. He became the Collins of 2008 over the final nine games, finishing with 32 tackles, five interceptions (including a four-game-in-a-row streak at one point), 10 passes defended and one sack in that span. That strong finish was enough to earn him his second consecutive Pro Bowl berth.

Thompson HAD to call Collins now, didn’t he? A 26-year old player, perhaps just entering his prime, who had proven his value in two completely different schemes in two years? How could he NOT want to extend Collins?

Based on Thompson’s lack of contact with Collins – again – one can only come away with a feeling that Green Bay has little or no interest in handing the five-year veteran a new deal. And that sets the table for a prolonged, and likely ugly, standoff between the two sides, one that could very well bleed over into the 2010 season.

One thing that is almost certain is that Collins will play for Green Bay or no one next season. With the CBA expiring and Collins having less than six years of league experience, he’s only going to be a restricted free agent. The Packers will surely place the first-and-third round tender on Collins, which is the highest tender allowed. No team is going to hand Green Bay those picks plus a huge new deal for Collins (if a team is willing, though, I’d take it in a second if I’m Thompson). The Packers could attempt to trade him, but with the value placed on picks, it’s doubtful they’d get more than a second-and-fifth for Collins. That’s not enough. Lastly, Collins could always just suck it up and sign the tender. In that scenario, he’d make rougly $3.5 million next season.

Simply put, there is no way Collins will suit up for that amount of money. None. You think he’ll play for that while the team is handing out four-year, $21 millon extensions to situational players like Brandon Chillar?

The question then becomes: What type of money is Collins looking for? Granted, I have no inside knowledge of the situation, but my best guess is that he’s going to want top-five safety money, the type of dough earned by guys like Baltimore’s Ed Reed, Pittsburgh’s Troy Polamalu and Indianapolis’ Bob Sanders. He’ll likely point to his versatility, recent success and age as the main reasons why he should be paid like them.

Well, here are the contract numbers for those three:

• Reed: signed a six-year, $44.4 million extension in 2006 at 27 ($15 million guaranteed)
• Polamalu: signed a five-year, $33 million extension in 2007 at 26 ($15.375 guaranteed)
• Sanders: signed a five-year, $37.5 million extension in 2007 at 26 ($20 million guaranteed)

In a chat with readers Tuesday, Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press Gazette guessed that Collins would want $11-12 million in guaranteed money. That sounds about right to me, as well. Take the overall number down a bit and the best guess here is that he’ll look for a five-year deal worth roughly $30 million with, again, $11-12 million guaranteed.

Next question: Is he worth that kind of money? While he is a very good player – and a good fit for the defense – Collins is not in the same league as the three guys listed above (yes, I factored in Sanders’ injury history). Adam and I both figured he’s near the top of the second tier of safeties. The main reason for this is a lack of consistent production. In some games, Collins is all over the place. In others, he’s nowhere to be found or leaving the game early with an injury of some sort. Look at the ‘09 season again. When he was great the Packers had a 7-2 record; when he sucked, the team was just 4-3. A lot of other factors played into that, of course, but it’s no mistake that the defense took off once he figured out what the hell he was doing.

Now it’s time for the final, and ultimate, question: What do the two sides have to do in order to ensure this thing doesn’t become an ugly distraction of near Favre-like proportions? For the Packers, it’s simple: Pick up the damn phone and call Collins. At least show you’re somewhat interested. Pro athletes, for all their toughness, usually have fragile egos and Collins’ has to be bruised a bit by the lack of interest from the organization. The Packers need to fix that. Let him know you understand his value to the team and that you’d like him back next season – but also let him know that his demands will simply have to come down a bit. 

For Collins, it’s also simple: Take a page out of Greg Jennings’ playbook. It would have been easy for Jennings to ask for a six-or-seven year extension last summer. No one would have faulted him. But he didn’t, instead opting for a three-year extension worth $27 million. Collins should follow suit. Ask for less years and, as a result, less guaranteed money. If Collins asked for, say, a three-year deal worth $20 million with $8 million guaranteed, I really believe an agreement could be reached.

It’s less money than Collins wants, but just like Jennings, Collins would still get a huge pay raise with the chance to hit free agency again at just 29 years old. He’d still be in his prime at that point and could still land one more really big contract.  

Neither side wants to blink. Both have their respective reasons and both have valid points to make. But, for the sake of a team that could be very, very good next season, the two sides need to end this game of hardball and get to the negotiating table. When your talking Super Bowls, it’s damn near irresponsible to look at it any other way.

-Chris Lempesis