A look at (and prediction for) Super Bowl XLIV

At last, it’s almost here.

Soon, there will be no more hype. No more injury reports. No more analysis. No more rumors of some band claiming to call themselves The Who playing the halftime show.

Seriously, fellas, you need to stop. You’re killing all of us.

Soon, Super Bowl XLIV will be upon us, with the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints battling it out to determine the world champions. But, since it’s not quite time yet, I figured I’d weigh in with my thoughts on the game. There’s a good chance Adam and Gene will give their respective thoughts and predictions rather shortly, so make sure to check back for those.

(Quick aside: You might have noticed that I stopped doing the weekly “Breaking down…” posts right after the week of the Cowboys game, way back in mid-November. The reason for that was simple: The Packers were on a winning streak. And you don’t you-know-what with a winning streak. Like I’ve said before, I’m superstitious to an astounding degree.)

Since pretty much everyone on the planet is picking the Colts – currently a five-point favorite the last time I checked – I’m going to use this post to try and answer a simple question: How do the Saints go about winning Sunday?

When I really looked at it, I came up with the following five things (my prediction for the game will follow):

1. Blitz Peyton Manning sparingly, if at all. Yes, yes – I know this goes against the standard football logic that says you have to pressure a great quarterback if you want to throw him off his game. But with the way Manning’s playing, you have to throw that logic out the window. Instead, the Saints need to take a page out of – brace yourselves – Bob Sanders’ playbook. Shocking, I know, but remember what Sanders did against Manning last season while he was still defensive coordinator of the Packers? He did what he always did: Swept four and dropped seven into coverage (with very little blitzing). It worked perfectly as Manning was never quite comfortable with all those defenders roaming in the secondary. Manning finished just 21-of-42 for 229 yards, with no touchdowns and two interceptions as Green Bay romped to a 34-14 win. With his lightening-fast delivery and knowledge of every blitz possible, Manning leaves you almost no chance to sack him, anyways. So you have to play the odds and throw as many bodies into coverage as you can and just hope someone makes a play. With players like Darren Sharper in their secondary, the Saints could do it.
2. Get physical with the receivers – very physical. Obviously, the Colts have a very good offense. But theirs is a finesse offense (as is the case with almost every dome team). This is especially true with regards to their receivers. Again, they’re very good, but I don’t see much physicality in that group. So you jam them, you press them – hell, you flat-out grab them off-the-snap if you have to. You might draw a penalty, yes, but you will also begin to frustrate them. That, in tune, will frustrate Manning (believe it or not, I still think that’s possible). The Colts are not necessarily a vertical offense; they rely heavily on short-and-intermediate stuff. Being physical with the pass-catchers cuts down on the timing you need to run those routes.
3. Do not let the Colts run the ball early on. This one’s simple: If the Colts can run early, Manning can playaction frequently. If that happens, game over.
4. Sean Payton: Don’t forget what got you here. Like everyone else, I was stunned at how conservative Payton became during the course of the NFC Championship Game. He took the ball out of Drew Brees’ hands and decided the Saints were going to become a ball-control offense. That’s not how the Saints won 13 games in the regular season and it almost caused them to lose to the Vikings. Get back to what you to best. Put Brees in the shotgun and let him wing it all over the yard. You’re going to need at least 35 points to win this one, Sean, and running on first-and-second down won’t do that for you.
5. Make Reggie Bush the focal point of your offense, especially early. With just nine total offensive touches for 41 yards (and a score), Bush was a glaring non-factor in the Vikings’ game. That can’t happen again Sunday. We can talk all we want about how Bush just hasn’t been the pro we all thought he’d be, but the fact remains: When he makes plays, the whole team is lifted (and opponents get the wind kicked out of them). He can break the game open Sunday, but he’ll need the ball way more than nine times for that to happen. The Saints should be aiming more for the 15-20 touch range and if that happens, you can almost guarantee Bush will break something.

Prediction

Unlike a lot of people, I really believe the Saints have a shot to win this one. After all, their offense is no shrinking violet and their defense, while certainly not great, can produce turnovers at key moments (see: the end of regulation in the Vikings’ game). With the way the Colts are playing, that might just be the only formula you can beat them with: Score, score, score and just hope for a turnover at some point. The Jets tried a gameplan based around running and defense and it worked – for less than a half. The Saints have to be thinking shootout. The only problem there is…

You’re getting into a shootout with, arguably, the greatest quarterback ever – which I think Manning becomes with a win Sunday – playing the best ball of his career. Everytime I look at this game, that’s all I keep coming back to: He’s one win away from possibly being the best ever. How does he let that moment pass him by? Sure, he’s had some playoff stinkers in the past, but he’s just so close now. And when the great ones are that close, they usually don’t slip up.

And Manning won’t slip Sunday.

Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 38, New Orleans Saints 31

-Chris Lempesis