(Note: Normally this post is fairly lighthearted. This week we’re actually going to get serious…well, as serious as you can be with a site name like ours.)
As I type this, the New Orleans Saints have just put the finishing touches on a convincing 38-17 win over the New England Patriots. Like our legendary friend Gene, I only saw a little bit of the game. And also like our legendary friend Gene, I came away very impressed with Drew Brees and Co.
Either way, the Saints are now 11-0 and have a very realistic chance of running the table and finishing a perfect 16-0 for the 2009 season.
That got me to thinking: Has the balance of power shifted back to the NFC?
Consider just how much this decade has been dominated by the AFC. The three preeminent teams of the 00s (New England, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis) all hail from that conference. Seven of the nine Super Bowls have been won by AFC teams, with Tampa Bay (2002) and the New York Giants (2007) being the lone NFC Super Bowl winners. Although I can’t remember how the Giants got to the Super Bowl. If you can… keep it to yourself.
Stark contrast from the 90s, which were of course dominated by the NFC (winners of eight of the 10 Super Bowls). The three preeminent teams in that decade, arguably, were Dallas, San Francisco and Green Bay, all hailing from the NFC. I’m leaving Denver off because, well, I feel like it. Yes, I’m still bitter! Deal with it!
(Quick aside: You could draw some weird comparisons between Green Bay from the 90s and Indy from the 00s. Both teams had big-time home field advantages. Both teams were ridiculously stacked for years and years in the talent department. Both Judas and Peyton Manning are record-breaking quarterbacks who choke in big games as often as they win them, yet both are so beloved by the fans/national media/advertisers that no one ever mentions it. And, finally, both teams won only one Super Bowl even though they should have won more. Indianapolis can rectify that this season, though.)
On the surface, though, that could be shifting, as New Orleans is clearly, in my mind, the best team in the NFL. It’s been awhile since an NFC team could claim such an honor this late in the season.
In fact, if I created power rankings for the league at this point, it would look something like this:
1. New Orleans
2. Indianapolis
3. Minnesota
4. San Diego
5. New England
6. Cincinnati
7. Green Bay
8. Dallas
9. Philadelphia
10. Pittsburgh
The AFC owns three of the top five spots, yes. But three of the next five spots belong to NFC teams. In other words, the AFC is top-heavy – as it has been throughout the decade – but the depth is simply not there as it has been in previous years. You won’t need to finish with 10 wins to make the playoffs in the AFC this year; you might in the NFC, though.
And if I were to include another tier of five, it would again be fairly even. Teams like Denver and Baltimore would be in there – but so would teams like Arizona and Atlanta.
Even the AFC’s three worst teams – Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland – aren’t that much better than the NFC’s three worst teams – Detroit, Tampa Bay and St. Louis. It seems like it’s been awhile since we could even say that.
The last hurdle to clear in determining whether or not the balance has shifted comes in the form of this question: How many teams from each conference could legitimately win the Super Bowl this year?
When I looked at the AFC, I came away with five teams who had a legitimate case: Indianapolis, San Diego, New England, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.
When I looked at the NFC, I only came away with two: New Orleans and Philadelphia. Minnesota is off the list because I just cannot see Judas playing crippling-mistake-free football against three good defenses in a row. Green Bay is off the list because it’s hard to see the o-line holding up against three good defenses in a row. And Dallas is off the list because the equation “Tony Romo + playoffs” has always equaled failure.
So, no, once you add it all up, the balance of power has not shifted. The strength of the league still resides in the AFC. But the NFC, as a whole, is making some big strides.
An interesting storyline to follow as the season progresses.
-Chris Lempesis
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