Breaking down Packers vs. Bears

We know about the storylines.

We know about the primetime television audience.

We know about the rivalry.

As fun as all those things are – and, believe me, they are fun – we should probably, at some point, talk about the actual matchup itself.

Well, that time is now, as we are going to break down all the important information and matchups that comprise Packers vs. Bears, Sunday night at Lambeau Field at 7:20 p.m. Lambeau time.

(Gives me chills just writing that)

Weather report: At the time of this posting, the Weather Channel forecast for kickoff suggest a possible high of 79 degrees and a possible low of 52 degrees, with zero chance of rain. That’s likely to change a half-dozen times between now and kickoff, but at the moment it sounds like it will be a perfect early fall evening at Lambeau.

Injury report

Packers

Will Blackmon (quad), Brandon Jackson (ankle) and B.J. Raji (ankle).

Raji practiced today and it sounds like he’s planning on playing. Whether the coaching staff agrees remains to be seen. Still, I think the big fella will play, albeit in a slightly reduced role.

Jackson and Blackmon, however, haven’t practiced in awhile. Jackson is almost guaranteed to be out, I think. Blackmon will test his quad today, but he’s been out with that injury far longer than originally thought and I doubt it heels in time for Sunday.

Bears

The only real major player battling an injury for the Bears is cornerback Charles Tillman (back).

Tillman was listed as a full participant in Thursday’s practice. Chicago is being secretive, as you’d expect, regarding his status but my bet is that he’ll play.

Key matchups

Offense

Packers wide receivers vs. Bears secondary

The Bears’ secondary won’t be quite the unit we’re used to seeing. In other words, it likely won’t be as good.

As of now, Chicago is definitely starting a rookie sixth-round pick, Al Afalava, at strong safety.

Tillman, even if he plays, won’t be 100 percent. If he doesn’t, Trumaine McBride, a third-year player with very little experience, will go in his spot. Nathan Vasher will start at the other corner. But he’s struggled with injuries and inconsistent play over the past two seasons.

Kevin Payne is the starting free safety and he’s a hard-hitter who is solid overall.

Regardless, the Packers elite group of wideouts should have plenty of opportunities to make plays.

Defense

Packers linebackers vs. Bears tight ends

With the Bears so questionable at wideout (Devin Hester as a No. 1 target? Really?), it’s a safe bet that their very good tight ends – Greg Olson and Desmond Clark – will be Jay Cutler’s top targets in this contest.

The Packers have to make sure those two don’t own the seams or else, suddenly, the whole field will open up for Cutler. The linebacking group, which has some strong cover guys (Brandon Chillar, Nick Barnett) and some who, well, aren’t strong (Brady Poppinga, A.J. Hawk) will have to be physical with Olson and Clark to keep them from finding space.

Special teams

Packers cover teams vs. Bears returners

Hester wasn’t his normal game-breaking self last season as a returner, likely because he had more responsibilities as a wideout. Still, he’s always dangerous. Danieal Manning handles the kickoff duties and all he did was lead the league in return average last season.

The Packers struggled on coverage duties last year. The group appears to have improved in the preseason, but it will be put to the test Sunday. It has to respond.

The Packers will win if….

1. The offensive line creates space for Ryan Grant and Grant takes advantage. Most of the talk surrounding the Packers’ preseason showings dealt with how well Aaron Rodgers looked. Rodgers was fantastic, to be sure, but the o-line and Grant are the real keys to success Sunday night. With the Bears’ secondary being so weak, you have to think head coach Lovie Smith – who is calling the plays on defense this year – will scheme it so that group is covered (i.e., running a lot of nickel and dime defenses early). If Chicago is sitting back on its heels, the running game should have a chance to get rolling early on. If it does, that will get the Bears leaning forward. Then its playaction time and the Pack will dominate.
2. Cutler is pressured. Yes, saying that you have to pressure the quarterback sends me dangerously close to “Master of the Obvious” territory, I know. But with Cutler, it’s really true. Remember, he doesn’t know his receivers that well yet. So, if the defense pressures Cutler, he will rely on his gunslinger mentality (he’s got a big arm and is a huge Judas fan, keep in mind). That will cause early and, oftentimes, poor throws. That will allow the Packers’ playmaking secondary to do what they do best: Create turnovers.
3. Green Bay gets off to a hot start. First quarters were not good for the Packers last season. A hot start Sunday is key because it will just reinforce for the team that it is as good as it was in the preseason. That type of momentum spreads throughout the entire team. It also lets Chicago know what type of game its in for. The Bears, a far-less talented team, could then start pressing in order to keep up.

How I think the game will go

Offensively, it’s all set up for the Packers to dominate. The Bears defense is on the downside even with a proven mastermind like Smith calling the plays. The Packers offense, on the other hand, is on the cusp of becoming one of the league’s best. If the o-line does its job, Green Bay will score in bunches. Period.

Defensively, the Packers have to prove the strong preseason showings weren’t a fluke. I think they will, somewhat, although don’t expect that group to dominate like it did. The games count now and the Bears have had some time to look at the tape from the preseason. Plus, Cutler is going to make one or two brilliant throws because, well, he almost always seems to and Matt Forte will get his touches and yards. That said, the Packers’ secondary is so good, I expect they will come up with at least a turnover or two.

That will prove to be the difference as Green Bay will make a statement that it is for real.

Prediction: Packers 27, Bears 20

-Chris Lempesis